The Department for Education has published the allocation of Initial Teacher Training (ITT) places and Teacher Supply Model (TSM) for the academic year 2017/18 (external link). The TSM gives an approximate figure of the number of newly qualified teachers needed in 2018/19.
The department sets a higher number of allocations compared to the number of NQTs actually required. This is to account for providers who don’t successfully fill their places and the trainee drop-out rate; as well as to accommodate trainees who don’t pursue employment in state funded schools.
The release was covered in the TES (external link) which states that “the government’s target for postgraduate trainees is 1,600 higher than last year.” At the same time, TES refers to UCAS figures that show that by April 2017 there was a drop of 6% in the number of people who had applied for teacher training.
There is clear evidence of a growing shortage of teaching staff across the board.